Habib Urrehman Mayar
Over the past three years, the world has experienced unprecedented uncertainty. The COVID-19 pandemic, followed by the wars in Ukraine and Gaza, has significantly undermined global peace and stability. These crises, magnified by globalization, highlight the reality that no one is safe until everyone is safe. However, the impact on already fragile states has been particularly severe. These countries, already struggling with decades of conflict and reliance on international aid, are now facing further challenges due to cuts in Official Development Assistance (ODA) and peacebuilding funds, as indicated by the OECD. Such reductions have drastic social, economic, and political consequences, with estimates suggesting that a 1% cut in aid can push 400,000 people into emergency situations. Fragile states, which comprise 24% of the world’s population, are projected to be home to nearly 80% of the world’s poorest people by 2030, a stark reminder of the urgency to eradicate extreme poverty.
Geopolitical Fragmentation and Fragile States:
The divided attention of global powers and their fragmentation have heightened uncertainty and instability in fragile countries. Many of these countries have been battlegrounds for regional powers and hegemonic conflicts. For instance, 38% of intrastate wars (civil wars) have been internationalized, meaning external states have provided troops to one or more warring groups. This figure is high by post-Cold War standards and likely underrepresents the true extent of internationalized conflicts, as it does not account for support through arms, money, or proxy forces. Such conflicts are deadlier and longer-lasting, undermining international institutions and diminishing the effectiveness of multilateralism. They often stem from unresolved social and political wounds from previous wars. As a citizen of Afghanistan, I have firsthand experience of how instability marked by regime changes, wars, and conflicts has become the norm, even decades since the start of the Cold War.
The “New Cold War” and Its Impact:
In the current geopolitical climate, termed the “New Cold War,” fragile countries are again becoming battlegrounds for hegemonic dominance. Political crises, fragility, and poverty in the least developed countries of the global south have attracted the attention of the regional and global players which are not multiple unlike the cold war right after world war II. In addition, these conditions, which could have been mitigated with long-term stability policies, now provide breeding grounds for undue interference such as international terrorism, undue interference in domestic affairs and hence proxy wars. In the pursuit of their narrow national interest, the regional and global hegemons are attempting to exert undue influence. For instance, since the war in Ukraine, Russia has sought to rekindle Soviet-era ties with nations in the Global South, especially in Africa.
Challenges with the conventional International Engagement:
Despite hosting peacekeeping, humanitarian, and development assistance missions for decades, many fragile countries remain disillusioned with their effectiveness in achieving self-reliance and long-lasting stability. Countries like the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), Mali, and Somalia have asked UN missions to leave, reflecting deep-rooted disappointments with the conventional international engagement framework. Fragility and poverty in these countries are not inevitable but result from the international community’s failure to address root causes proactively and effectively. International engagements have predominantly been guided by the neoliberal policies of donors and global powers, often without sufficient consideration of the national context and the vision of long-term stability. These cooperation efforts are frequently viewed through the lens of the national security interests of donor countries.
The g7+; a new voice of “fragile countries”:
Against the backdrop of ineffective international engagement, a coalition of 20 conflict-affected countries formed the g7+ to pursue a vision of stability and development in 2010. With headquarters in Dili, Timor-Leste, and offices in Lisbon and New York, the g7+ provides an influential platform for dialogue on addressing fragility and conflict. The g7+ operates on the principle that there can be no development without peace and that peace can be sustained with development. National dialogue, truth, and reconciliation have been crucial for lasting peace in member countries like Timor-Leste, South Africa, and Rwanda. The g7+, along with OECD-DAC donors and civil society, agreed on these principles, forming the New Deal for Engagement in Fragile States, a landmark framework endorsed by over 45 countries and international organizations during the 4th High-Level Forum on Aid Effectiveness in Busan, Korea, in 2011.
Despite recognizing fragility as a core issue leading to instability, poverty, and political crises, the international community has failed to support stability effectively in these contexts. The New Deal principles have been reduced to technical tools, requiring political will for adherence. Various global frameworks recognize the nexus among humanitarian, peacekeeping, and development actions and the indispensability of addressing fragility for global peace. However, they have failed to reform international policies affecting fragile countries. The New Deal became a technical tool discourse whereas it was supposed to pursue reforms in the international development cooperation that would require political will.
The challenges faced by fragile states are not insurmountable. With the right international support and policies that focus on long-term stability and development, these countries can transition from fragility to resilience. The g7+ advocates for several key solutions to make a difference in fragile countries:
- Support National Processes of Dialogue and Reconciliation: Nationally owned and led processes of truth and reconciliation can help achieve national cohesion, a critical condition for stability and conflict prevention. Lessons from g7+ countries and elsewhere, such as Rwanda, demonstrate the effectiveness of these processes. Given the exogenous factors stemming from colonization to the Cold War, international actors have an indispensable role in the pursuit of peaceful resolutions to conflicts in fragile countries.
For instance, if the United States and its allies had prioritized supporting a true intra-Afghan dialogue with the goal of saving the republic, Afghanistan might have experienced a different outcome. The international community’s commitment to genuine reconciliation and support for Afghan-led peace initiatives could have laid the groundwork for sustainable peace and stability, preventing the prolonged suffering and chaos that ensued.
This underscores the need for international engagements to be genuinely aligned with the long-term stability goals of fragile states, rather than being driven by the immediate security concerns of donor nations. By focusing on the root causes of conflicts and supporting inclusive, nationally driven peace processes, the international community can play a transformative role in helping fragile states achieve lasting peace and development.
- Long term vision of self-reliance and resilience: Addressing fragility cannot be reduced to a series of short-lived, project-based interventions. While aid often serves as a political tool for donor countries, it can have a tremendous impact if driven by a long-term vision of self-reliance and institution building. Stability and resilience in these countries is equally in the interest of developed nations even if we had to deduct aid to narrow national interest. Instability and fragility are the bid source of refugee crises. Achieving resilience in institutions and governance is a time-consuming process that requires sustained commitment and strategic planning.
- Support Democracy and Freedom: Fragile countries have a strong aspiration for freedom and democracy. Despite setbacks like regime changes in Afghanistan and Guinea, many fragile countries rank high on freedom indices. International efforts should strengthen democratic means for resolving conflicts and governance rooted in these countries’ cultures and histories.
- Multilateralism is the last resort for fragile countries: Multilateral institutions and processes are the last resort for conflict-affected countries. However, the dominance of global powers within these institutions has often undermined multilateral processes and frameworks. While the role of multilateralism in addressing the multiple challenges facing the world is undeniable, it is crucial that their policies include voices from least developed and developing countries. The influence of global powers within multilateral institutions can skew priorities and policies, often sidelining the needs of more vulnerable countries. It is essential to address these power imbalances to ensure that all countries and particular the conflict affected countries that have been among the farthest left behind, have an equal say in decision-making processes. This can be achieved through reforms that promote greater equity and transparency within these institutions
Conclusion:
Fragile countries have long been victims of colonization, the Cold War, proxy wars, and now climate change—problems for which they bear little responsibility. Even during periods of relative global peace, these countries suffered due to the legacy of fragility. The recent geopolitical fragmentation has once again made these countries battlegrounds for hegemonic contests. Instability and fragility in these countries will not remain confined within their borders in an interconnected world. Therefore, global stability and peace depend on investing in resilience in these countries. It is a shared responsibility, particularly for the global West, to support these efforts and contribute to global peace and stability.
The future of fragile states in the context of the “New Cold War” is fraught with challenges but also opportunities. By learning from past mistakes and adopting a more inclusive and proactive approach, the international community can help these countries achieve peace and development. The g7+ remains committed to advocating for the needs of fragile states and working towards a more equitable and stable world.
